by John Zogby
Forbes

Mitt Romney
has spent months selling himself to the Republican base. Now, Barack
Obama is working overtime trying to re-sell himself to his base
of voters age 18-29.Team Obama knows that hard times and the growing
libertarian leanings of young voters will make them a more difficult
target than four years ago.

Just as there
is no doubt Romney will easily carry reluctant Tea Partiers and
social conservatives, Obama will again win the age cohort I call
First Globals. But it seems unlikely he will again win 66% of their
votes, or that they will equal their turnout of 2008, which matched
the historic high set in 1972, the first year the voting age was
lowered to 18. Four years ago, First Globals made up 18% of all
voters. In 2010, that fell to 12%.

Very few of
ObamaÂ’s young supporters from 2008 are likely defect to Romney.
Some may not vote, and I see the possibility of others abandoning
both parties and instead choosing the Libertarian candidate.

My most recent
polling with JZ Analytics found ObamaÂ’s approval rating among
the 18-29 group in the high 50 percentile, up from where it had
been a few months earlier. Approval rating is a good indicator of
whether voters will support an incumbent, so you can see Obama is
behind where he needs to be among younger voters. ObamaÂ’s youth
vote problem is most acute among those 18-24 who entered the job
market since he took office and are not finding work that meets
their expectations.

Last week,
HarvardÂ’s
Institute of Politics released an online study of more than
3,000 U.S. adults ages 18-29. This exhaustive look at the policy
priorities of First Globals finds the economy and jobs are far and
away their highest concern. That data point and others show why
support for Obama has slipped since 2008. They favor Obama over
Romney, 43%-26%. There is an 11-point difference in ObamaÂ’s
margin between those 25-29 (23 points) and those 18-24 (12 points.)
Congressional Democrats have a higher approval than Republicans,
39%-25%.

However, on
some key issues, majorities of First Globals are not doctrinaire
liberals. The poll found less than majorities agree with liberals
on some of their most cherished beliefs. For example: 44% agree
health insurance is a right government should provide for those
who canÂ’t afford it, 43% agree with the same statement about
food and shelter, 37% agree government should spend more to reduce
poverty, 20% agree government spending is an effective way to economic
growth and 28% agree government should do more to curb climate change
even at the expense of economic growth. (That last number has to
hurt environmentalists.)

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the rest of the article

May
14, 2012

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© 2012 Forbes